All eyes on agriculture in poll year

Indian farmers saw a bumper crop in 2018. On the flipside, crop prices slumped, resulting in widespread distress. The agriculture sector will be in the spotlight as the Centre is set to roll out a big package to assuage angry farmers ahead of the general election.

The proposals being considered range from waiving off interest for farmers who repay crop loans on time to lowering the insurance premium and providing income support.

In 2018, the Centre did take several measures, including fixing the MSP at least 1.5 times the production cost, to address farmers’ woes. But farmers continued to face the challenge of selling their produce at remunerative prices in both domestic and international markets.

Reports of farmers dumping their produce on the streets or selling at throwaway prices were common. Droughts in states such as Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Jharkhand only aggravated the crisis.

While the Centre ruled out a loan waiver, the Congress did promise the same during the Assembly polls. The party achieved success in four states - Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh - largely riding on the promise of farm loan waiver. It has put pressure on the BJP-led Central government to take more pro-farmer initiatives.

It is certain that the NDA and Opposition parties will engage in one-upmanship in wooing farmers and promising doles for securing their crucial votes.

In short, it looks like politics over agriculture will play out in a big way in the general election, given that the farm sector absorbs half of the country’s 1.3 billion population.

What’s in store for the volatile rupee?

The US dollar strength, oil prices and the general election will determine the rupee’s direction in the near term, with fundamentals being supportive for the Indian currency over the next 6-12 months.

Attractive real yields (net of inflation), growth momentum and robust forex reserves of $394 billion are likely to be positive for the rupee, said a report by Standard Chartered Bank.

Last year was extremely volatile for the rupee. The currency had been trading between 63 and 69 since mid-2015, but went on to plummet over 14 per cent to record an all-time low of 74.48 in October. However, it managed to bounce back. The rupee closed at 69.77 on December 31, down 8.5 per cent for the year.

In 2019, crude oil prices will continue to remain a major driver of the rupee. If oil remains subdued, the currency may retain its strength. But a strong upward reversal in oil prices may drag the currency lower again.

Developments on the Brexit front may cause jitters in the currency market, which, in turn, may have an impact on the rupee.

Rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve could also play a role. The dollar may strengthen if the Fed decides to increase rates more than twice, in which case the rupee may suffer.

Increasing concern on the slowdown in global growth is another worry.

The outcome of the general election will have an impact on foreign flows, and this is also likely to influence the rupee movement.

More milestones in store for space agency

Last year could be termed as one of several new beginnings for ISRO - the political sanction for a manned Gaganyaan mission, operationalisation of the heaviest rocket, steps to licence out lithium-ion battery technology, introduction of new technologies in rockets and satellites and the decision to go ahead with the Indian Data Relay Satellite System, among others. As the year ended, the Indian Air Force got its own eye in the sky to exponentially enhance its capabilities. The year also saw ISRO crossing the milestone of lifting and putting into orbit over 250 foreign satellites, bringing the total to 269.

Looking forward to 2019, ISRO will be busy with the Rs 800 crore Chandrayaan-2, India’s second moon mission slated in January as well as flying its new Small Satellite Launch Vehicle (SSLV) rocket. The SSLV will be able to to carry satellites weighing 500-700 kg. At least 32 missions have been planned for 2019.

Eleven years after Chandrayaan-1, Chandrayaan-2 is being planned in the first quarter of 2019. The launch window is between January 3 and February-end. Chandrayaan-2 is expected to perform multiple experiments to map major elements of the moon’s surface, prepare a 3D map to assess its geology, and to check for the presence of water ice.

About eight PSLV, two GSLV Mk-II and two GSLV Mk-III, two SSLV and one test GSLV Mk-III for the Gaganyaan project will be blasted off in 2019. GISAT-1, a geo-imaging satellite for monitoring of disasters, natural hazards and calamities may also take off.

Social media to stay under the scanner

With the general election around the corner, the role of social media has grown tremendously, which also creates challenges for the government and security agencies. Last year saw many cases of fake news and hate messages leading to mob violence. Now, social media stares at the prospect of stricter government rules, greater accountability and regulatory scrutiny. In a major decision, the government has allowed 10 intelligence and investigating agencies to intercept, monitor and decrypt any information generated, transmitted or received in any computer.

British data analytics and political consulting firm Cambridge Analytica was accused of harvesting personal information of millions of Facebook users illegally to help political campaigns and influence polls in several countries. To bring transparency in political advertisements in the run-up to the general election, Facebook is making it compulsory for advertisers to disclose their identity and location before any such ad material can be run on the popular social media platform.

Twitter, too, intensified its crackdown on fake and automated accounts and began removing suspicious accounts from users’ followers to give a “meaningful and accurate” view of follower count. Following the government’s warnings, WhatsApp recently named a grievance officer for India and announced the appointment of an India head - a first for the country that accounts for most users across the world. It has launched a label that identifies forwarded messages and barred forwarding of messages to more than five people at one go.

A tryst with destiny for Kohli & Co

If 2018 was the year of the football World Cup and Asian Games, all eyes will be on the cricket World Cup this year. Captain Virat Kohli has already built the core of the squad for the big event to be held in England and Wales from May 30 to July 14.

With a spectacular victory in the 2011 World Cup and a dismal show in the 2015 edition, hopes are soaring high thanks to Team India’s performance in the ongoing Australia tour. India will follow up with a trip to New Zealand, after which the line-up will be clear.

Goal machine Sunil Chhetri will lead the Indian football team, which is gearing up to appear at the AFC Asian Cup in January after a gap of eight years. The team is 97th in the FIFA rankings and yet to play at a World Cup, but the AIFF is confident that the team’s fourth Asian Cup appearance will prove to be a vital stepping stone.

After missing out at the final hurdle on many occasions, shuttler P.V. Sindhu ended 2018 with a big win in the World Tour Finals. In 2019, Sindhu, Saina Nehwal and K. Srikanth will be aiming to perform their best at the World Championships to be held in Basel.

After the Asian Games disaster and World Cup quarter-final exit, the Indian hockey team will get their first shot at an Olympic berth at the World Series Finals to be held in June.

Read the second part here.