Ayodhya case to set the tone for judiciary

After delivering many landmark judgements in 2018, the Supreme Court is set to deliver a few more that might have ramifications on the general election. Of these, the most awaited is the hearing in the Ayodhya case. With the Ram temple issue keeping the political pot on the boil, the court is scheduled to take up 14 petitions relating to rival claims of ownership over the disputed land on January 4.

Though there are calls for an ordinance to build a Ram temple in Ayodhya before the election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah have made it clear that they will wait for apex court’s verdict to decide on the future course.

Another important case that has reached the apex court is the infighting within the CBI. The court has reserved its order on the plea of CBI director Alok Verma challenging the Centre’s decision to divest him of his powers. Though the Supreme Court refused to stay its verdict allowing the entry of women of all age groups into the Sabarimala temple, it will hear a batch of review petitions on January 22.

The apex court has given a clean chit to the Centre in the decision-making of the Rafale deal, but the legal battle refuses to die as Arun Shourie and Yashwant Sinha have filed a review petition amid allegations that the Centre has misled the court.

Congress leader Sajjan Kumar, who got a life term from the Delhi High Court for his role in the 1984 anti-Sikh riots, has approached the apex court seeking a stay on his sentence.

The apex court-monitored exercise for updating the National Register of Citizens in Assam is expected to be completed by June.

Reasons for optimism on the economic front

India is expected to witness strong economic growth in 2019, after it emerged as the fastest growing major world economy in 2018 despite growing global vulnerabilities.

The positive outlook is buttressed by strong drivers emanating from the services sector and better demand conditions arising out of poll spend, with the general election looming large.

“Better demand conditions, settled GST implementation, capacity expansion from growing investments in infrastructure, continuing positive effects of reform policies and improved credit offtake, especially in the services sector at 24 per cent, will sustain the robust GDP growth in the range of 7.5 per cent in 2019,” said industry body CII.

According to NITI Aayog vice-chairman Rajiv Kumar, the government’s focus in 2019 will be to expedite reforms with a view to accelerate growth. “India will grow at around 7.8 per cent in the next calendar year and investment cycle that has already started picking up will gather further strength and we will see more private investments,” he said.

However, some experts expect that moderating growth can force the Union government to spend more before the crucial general election and that could lead to fiscal pressures.

The CII has identified seven key drivers for growth that need to be fostered and suggested policy actions for robust GDP growth to continue in 2019. Among key growth drivers, CII hopes the GST Council will consider extending the tax to currently exempted sectors such as fuel, real estate, electricity and alcohol.

The CII believes the government will continue to place high priority on simplifying business procedures, especially in terms of working with states for grassroots improvements.

Lok Sabha polls put India at a crossroads

The Assembly polls held in 2018 were touted as the semi-finals before the 2019 general election and the results provided a shot in the arm for the Opposition, especially the Congress. After overseeing a series of losses, Rahul Gandhi seems to have earned his spurs to take on the Narendra Modi juggernaut.

Stung by the defeats in the Assembly polls, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance faces a litany of challenges. Rural distress is the biggest of the lot because the farming community forms a sizable votebank. The BJP’s traditional base of small traders are still smarting from the after-effects of demonetisation and GST implementation.

But it won’t be a smooth sailing for the Opposition either. Despite calls for a Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance), the Congress is likely to face stiff opposition when it comes to seat sharing and electoral adjustments with parties who continue to be regional rivals. While the BJP will relish a presidential contest, pitting Modi against Rahul, the political jockeying involving regional satraps could play spoilsport.

No doubt, the Lok Sabha polls will be the biggest political battle of 2019, but there are crucial Assembly polls slated for this year as well. Elections in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Jammu & Kashmir, Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim are likely to be held along with the general election, while polls in BJP-ruled Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand are likely to be held later in the year.

Mending fences in South Asia and beyond

The Narendra Modi government has faced criticism for its on and off relationship with South Asian neighbours. With no signs of peace talks with Pakistan and financial issues to settle with Nepal, the political crisis in Sri Lanka also cast a shadow on bilateral ties.

Though the government has maintained that talks and terror can’t go together, work on the Kartarpur corridor showed signs of engagement with Pakistan. But experts dismiss any signs of thaw before the general election as infiltration, surgical strikes and Kashmir are hot topics for all the parties.

Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met four times in 2018 and they concurred that there had been a “perceptible improvement” in bilateral ties after the Wuhan Summit in April. Though differences remain, maintaining cordial ties is important with the US showing special interest in the Indo-Pacific.

The reappointment of Ranil Wickremesinghe as Sri Lanka’s Prime Minister and Sheikh Hasina’s victory in Bangladesh augur well for India. With Mohamed Solih at the helm, India expects to renew ties with Maldives and continue the development partnership.

Notwithstanding irritants on trade issues, India and the US made landmark progress in 2018 to bolster their strategic and defence ties - from holding the maiden trilateral meeting with Japan to the first-ever 2+2 dialogue, during which they signed the long-pending COMCASA agreement, which would open the way for sales of more sensitive US military equipment to India. A new law signed by President Donald Trump describes India as a major defence partner. However, the new visa rules planned by the US and its collision course with Iran may affect India in 2019.

A healthcare system in need of doctors

After a landmark year in the healthcare sector thanks to the launch of Ayushman Bharat, price cap on medical devices and tackling the shortage of qualified doctors are some of the issues that the government is working on.

Nearly 7 lakh people have been treated for free in various empanelled hospitals under the Ayushman Bharat-Pradhan Mantri Jan Aarogya Yojana (AB-PMJAY), which was launched on September 23. The scheme - billed as the world’s biggest public health scheme - provides annual health cover of Rs 5 lakh per family to poor families. Described as a “game changer in health care”, the scheme is likely to be projected as one of the NDA’s biggest achievements ahead of the 2019 polls.

India is battling a severe shortage of qualified doctors. The National Medical Commission Bill 2017, which seeks to replace the Medical Council of India (MCI) with a National Medical Commission and overhaul the medical education system is pending in Parliament. The government has been pushing the NMC Bill amid resistance from the Indian Medical Association and other sections.

Ten new AIIMS hospitals, to be set up across the country, will have well-known doctors and not the Union health minister as chairpersons, in a marked shift in policy. Acute shortage of doctors and infra gaps have been cited as the main reasons for the limited utility of the new hospitals. New AIIMS units at Mangalagiri and Nagpur are set to be operational this year.

After slashing prices of coronary stents and knee implants, the government is considering capping prices of more medical devices to improve their affordability and accessibility.

Read the first part here.