Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was on a four-day visit to India from October 2. It was her first visit to the country after assuming office for the third time in a row in December 2018. The BJP’s victory in the 2019 general election has signalled a new ray of hope for boosting Indo-Bangladesh relations.

Considering the past equation between the BJP and the Awami League under Sheikh Hasina’s leadership and their commitment to work closely in improving bilateral ties along with their active contribution in regional cooperation, the visit held an utmost priority for the two governments. It was reflected in the press briefing of the Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi on October 2. The statement said “we are talking about the next steps the two countries should take now to get the relationship in a different trajectory”.

Before the meeting in New Delhi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Sheikh Hasina had met on the sidelines of the 74th session of the UN General Assembly, and an outline of the bilateral talks had been discussed there. Indo-Bangladesh bilateral cooperation has advanced in several sectors, including IT, youth affairs, education, cultural exchange, power and coastal surveillance. Most importantly, bilateral trade is witnessing a golden phase. In 2017-18, bilateral trade had accounted for $9.3 billion. Bangladesh is India’s largest trading partner in South Asia.

The cooperation

The growing manufacturing industry in Bangladesh is catering to India’s demand for finished goods, especially electronics and ships. In one of her open editorials, Sheikh Hasina had mentioned that “four ships made in Bangladesh have come to India. Recently, Reliance purchased a large quantity of refrigerators made in Bangladesh”.

While India’s active engagement in these sectors does not come any close to the presence of Chinese goods in India, Bangladesh is undoubtedly emerging as a potential manufacturer for Indian markets.

Geographically and strategically speaking, Bangladesh has been a win-win space for India. The proximity between India’s northeastern states and Bangladesh has taken centre-stage in the development sector in recent years. In doing so, India’s Look East Policy has acted as the prism for almost every engagement with Bangladesh. Soon after the BJP came to power in 2014, the Look East Policy was converted into an Act East Policy.

The latest meeting has further echoed the Act East Policy as among the three projects jointly inaugurated by the two prime ministers, one of the projects is regarding the import of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for distribution in India’s northeastern states by Bangladesh.

The supply of LPG from Bangladesh will reduce the transportation distance by 1,500 km from LPG supply centres within India to the northeastern states. It will also result in economic benefits for the two and will minimise damage to the environment.

In the past one year, India and Bangladesh have launched as many as 12 bilateral projects, including three inked during the latest visit. Additionally, seven new MoUs were signed, including a standard operating procedure on the use of Chattogram and Mongla ports, drawing 1.82 cusecs of water from Feni river by India for a drinking water supply, implementation of line of credit, University of Hyderabad and University of Dhaka joining hands for bilateral academic advancement, cooperation in youth affairs, coastal surveillance and cultural exchange.

The challenges

The two countries have termed the visit a success, but many unaddressed problems have infused uneasiness in the cooperation.

Prior to her departure from Dhaka, it was expected that Sheikh Hasina would raise the issue of the recently implemented National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Assam. The NRC is seen as an exercise to identify illegal migrants from Bangladesh allegedly settled in Assam. The exercise may further spread to West Bengal, where a similar line on illegal Bangladeshi migrants is observed. But no official communiqué included NRC in the talks. Modi reportedly made an informal assurance that the exercise will not affect bilateral ties amid reports that India plans to repatriate illegal migrants to Bangladesh after the identification process is completed.

Secondly, the sharing of Teesta river water is still a significant challenge in defining bilateral ties. The Teesta flows through West Bengal and reaches Bangladesh. Bangladesh has been complaining about an unfair amount of water being released by the West Bengal government, especially in summer. The Teesta water-sharing agreement was almost concluded in 2011, but it was blocked by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.

In her official statement, Sheikh Hasina reiterated that the people of Bangladesh are “awaiting early signing and implementation of the Framework of Interim Agreement for sharing of the Teesta waters, as agreed upon by both governments in 2011”.

In response, Modi said his government is working with all stakeholders for concluding the agreement as soon as possible. However, differences between the Centre and West Bengal have further widened and Mamata’s absence at the meeting indicated the same.

To conclude, India and Bangladesh are continuously engaged in diversifying their areas of cooperation, and it is a good indication for the two markets in the coming years. The two countries have been victims of terrorism and their cooperation to tackle it together further strengthens ties. The two have often spoken on similar lines in condemning Pakistan for sheltering and sponsoring terrorism within the region at regional forums including SAARC and BIMSTEC.

Meanwhile, amid all the positive indications, issues such as NRC and Teesta water sharing will play a critical role in bilateral relations.

Rishi Gupta is a doctoral candidate at Jawaharlal Nehru University and a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Kathmandu-based Asian Institute of Diplomacy and International Affairs. The views expressed here are personal.