The best-regarded feature of democracy is that it somewhat surprises than disappoints. It defies the farcical laws of existing norms and allows a force led by the people to prevail by moulding their contemporary needs and demands into the existing political system.

The results of the parliamentary polls in Bangladesh held on December 30 are best seen as a surprise. The ruling Awami League has clinched a landslide victory by claiming 288 seats out of the total 300. This is the third consecutive victory for the Awami League under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina. The Opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which had contested in alliance with the barred Islamic fundamentalist Jamaat-e-Islami and Jatiya Oikya Front, managed to win only seven seats. This is the worst loss that an Opposition party has suffered in the country’s democratic history.

During the 2014 election, the BNP chose to boycott the polls, leaving the Awami League with a comfortable ride to form a majority.

The Opposition has termed the polls “farcical” as the exercise was held under the ruling Awami League rather than an independent interim government as provisioned in the Constitution. With a low voter turnout, the country witnessed 26 incidents of violence, suspension of 22 polling booths and the death of 18 people as more than 10 crore voters made their way to polling stations.

The election results are surprising on many levels, especially as political analysts had warned of significant challenges faced by the Awami League such as anti-incumbency and corruption. Considering the sympathy wave for the BNP-led alliance due to their miscalculated move to boycott the 2014 election and the increasing involvement of Awami League ministers in corruption cases, the BNP was seen as the natural choice to emerge victorious. But the Awami League defied the pre-poll arithmetic to solidify its base with a third consecutive victory.

Here’s a look at the three key factors that contributed to the Awami League’s victory.

Lack of a strong Opposition candidate

BNP leader and former premier Khaleda Zia is serving a 12-year jail term after she was convicted in two separate corruption cases, including for misusing funds meant for Zia Charitable Trust, an orphanage trust in the name of her late husband. While the political turf in Bangladesh is known for its battle between the two Begums, the absence of Khaleda Zia dented the Opposition’s chances.

Also, the Jamaat-e-Islami, the largest fundamentalist Islamic party with its roots in Pakistan, had its membership revoked by the Supreme Court in 2013 for its involvement in atrocities during the 1971 Liberation War. The Jamaat had sided with Pakistan and opposed the creation of Bangladesh out of the erstwhile East Pakistan. In the past, the Jamaat had managed to provide a critical vote bank for the BNP. However, with many of its leaders prosecuted and sentenced with capital punishment and many on death row, the party failed to mobilise its vote bank this time.

Additionally, in the absence of a credible Opposition face, the BNP in alliance with the Jatiya Okiya Front had projected Dr Kamal Hossain as a moderate face. A close aide of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman - the founding father and the first president of Bangladesh - Dr Hossain had a fallout with Sheikh Hasina in 1988, and since then he had parted his ways with the Awami League. During the recent polls, he represented a more secular face rather than the hardcore religious line followed by the BNP and the Jamaat, and as a result, his candidature could not contribute to the success of the Opposition alliance.

Positive economic indicators

Under Hasina, Bangladesh has witnessed remarkable economic growth. The country currently ranks second only to China in the global garment manufacturing industry. In recent years, not only has the garment industry seen a boom, the GDP in the past decade has remained above 7 per cent. Also, with the inflow of remittances sent by Bangladeshis working in the Gulf and Europe, the economy has shifted from seeking economic assistance to self-sufficiency. Even though Bangladesh ranks 136 out of 189 countries in the Global Human Development Index, a sharp rise in the GDP indicators tells a different story. Also, despite an unstable domestic turf, including the crisis over Rohingya refugees, economic development has worked in Hasina’s favour.

Better ties with neighbours

It is an established norm that under Sheikh Hasina, bilateral ties with India have always been good. New Delhi has always cited the close socio-cultural and political ties with Bangladesh as the foundation of its bilateral relationship. It was reflected during the warm welcome given to Hasina during her visit to New Delhi in 2017. A 62-point joint statement issued in New Delhi had covered areas from diplomacy, energy, economy and people-to-people contact. India had also issued a $7.5 billion Line of Credit for infrastructure development in Bangladesh. Additionally, Hasina has won New Delhi’s goodwill thanks to her extensive cooperation for the peaceful settlement of trans-boundary water and land-border disputes. Her close ties with New Delhi and relaxed policies on visa and transportation for relatives across the border as well as goodwill among the minority Hindus - who make up 10 per cent of the population - have scored as a loyal vote bank for Hasina.

Further, under the Hasina administration, bilateral ties with China have reached a new high. In a significant investment, China bought 25 per cent shares in the Dhaka Stock Exchange this year. Also, under its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, China is developing a 750-acre industrial park in a bid to increase its overseas manufacturing industry. Moreover, Bangladesh is the second largest importer of Chinese military goods. Hence, a balanced act of business and high-end FDI, both from India and China, seem to have contributed to Hasina’s victory on the foreign policy front.

To conclude, development indicators and a traditionally dedicated vote bank have given a thumping victory for Sheikh Hasina for the third time in a row. However, in the light of Opposition allegations of rigging and influencing voters by the Awami League, political stability shall remain the most sought-after element of the election results.

Rishi Gupta is a doctoral candidate at the Centre for South Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. The views expressed here are personal.