Gotabaya Rajapaksa was sworn in as the seventh president of Sri Lanka on November 18. He won the election by securing 52 per cent of the votes, while his main opponent, Sajith Premadasa of the United National Party (UNP), finished with 42 per cent.

Gotabaya, 70, has named his elder brother and former president Mahinda Rajapaksa as the new prime minister after Ranil Wickremesinghe announced his resignation. With Wickremesinghe stepping down, sources said the UNP might split or might have a new leader in Premadasa. There are also reports that former president Maithripala Sirisena was planning to return to the Rajapaksa camp.

Gotabaya, who was defence secretary under Mahinda, cruised to victory by focusing on two key issues - security and economy. His trump card was security as Sri Lankans continue to be haunted by the Easter Sunday attacks. Gotabaya ran an aggressive campaign reminding the people about the intelligence failure that led to the attacks. On the economy front, he promised to deliver on the reform agenda.

While Mahinda was criticised for his brutal suppression of the Tamil civil war, the measure was hugely popular among the majority Sinhalas. Mahinda also brought in several infrastructure projects, most of them financed by China. But under Sirisena and Wickremesinghe, debt grew drastically and the economy nosedived.

“Gotabaya will immediately ensure that the right people are at work to revive the economy. It may not be possible in a month. But the process will begin soon and we will invite foreign direct investment, encourage local investments, exports and bring clear proposals for improving agriculture,” said Palitha Kohona, Sri Lanka’s former permanent representative to the United Nations.

While Gotabaya’s return has brought cheer to the Sinhala majority, the Tamils and Muslims are disappointed. In the north and the east, where the Tamils and the Muslims live, Gotabaya finished way behind Premadasa.

“Authoritarian family rule is once again back in our country. Till 2015, one family was running the government. Mahinda was president, Gota was defence secretary, younger brother Basil was a minister and Chamal, the eldest in the family, was speaker,” said Jaffna-based political observer N. Nilanthan. “This time, Mahinda’s son Namal, too, will play a very important role.”

While the Rajapaksas claimed that they had brought in infrastructure development and rehabilitated the war-affected people in the Northern Province, the Tamils are still traumatised by the torture they endured, especially during the last stages of the civil war. Many people in the region think of Gotabaya as a war criminal, although the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) worked hard in the province for the Tamil votes. “We still have not got our land back. With Gota back in power, they will ensure that there will be Sinhala settlements here,” said Nilanthan.

Kohona, however, said it was wrong to assume that Gotabaya would be against the minorities. “In the north and the east, people did not vote for him,” he said. “But a majority of the Tamils live in Colombo. In the Western and Southern Provinces, he won handsomely. He will lead the country and be the president of the people of this country irrespective of who voted for him.”

China ties a concern for India

India, meanwhile, is looking at the return of the Rajapaksas with some concern. Mahinda had blamed the Research and Analysis Wing for his loss in the 2015 polls. He also alleged that India brought Sirisena and Wickremesinghe together to keep him out of power.

Although India subsequently mended relations with the Rajapaksas, the clan’s close ties with China are still a matter of concern. When he was president, Mahinda had opened up Sri Lanka for the Chinese, who invested heavily in the country, including in the Hambantota Port. Sri Lanka subsequently became an enthusiastic participant in the Belt and Road Initiative. Mahinda even allowed a Chinese submarine and a warship to dock at the Colombo port despite India’s objections.

No wonder India moved quickly to congratulate Gotabaya upon his victory and establish a rapport with him. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar met the new president in Colombo on November 19. During the meeting, Gotabaya said Sri Lanka considered India to be its “relative”, while China was its trade partner. Gotabaya accepted Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s invitation to visit India and is likely to arrive in New Delhi on November 29.

“India will be the cornerstone of our foreign policy,” said Kohona. “Highest priority will be given to our relations with India because of the historic, cultural and economic nature of the ties - not just between the two governments, but also between the two people.”

This article originally appeared in The Week.

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