IMD forecasts ‘near normal’ monsoon

The country is likely to have ‘near normal’ monsoon this year with a well distributed rainfall, which could be beneficial for the agriculture sector, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on April 15.

The seasonal rainfall is likely to be 96 per cent of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus 5 per cent, said Ministry of Earth Sciences secretary M. Rajeevan.

The LPA of the seasonal rainfall as a whole for the 1951-2000 period is 89 cm.

“Forecast suggests that the 2019 southwest monsoon rainfall is likely to be near normal. However, there is very less chance for the monsoon rainfall to be above normal or excess,” the IMD said.

It said there is a 39 per cent chance of a ‘near normal’ rainfall, 32 per cent possibility of a ‘below normal’ rainfall and a 10 per cent chance of an ‘above normal’ rainfall.

There is a 17 per cent chance of deficient rainfall and only 2 per cent possibility of excess rainfall, the department added.

“Overall, the country is expected to have a well-distributed rainfall scenario during the monsoon season, which will be beneficial to farmers during the ensuing kharif season,” said IMD director general K.J. Ramesh.

Monsoon is considered a lifeline of the subcontinent where the economy is still largely dependent on agriculture, but several parts of India are witnessing farm distress.

Significantly, this year the IMD has introduced a category of ‘near normal’ for rainfall between 96 to 104 per cent of the LPA. In its forecast last year, the rainfall between 96 to 104 of the LPA was classified as ‘normal’.

90 to 96 per cent rainfall of the LPA is ‘below normal’ and 96 per cent rainfall also borders on ‘below normal’ and ‘normal’.

Rajeevan said weak El Nino conditions are likely to prevail during the monsoon season with reduced intensity. There could be some effect of the El Nino in June, but monsoon may pick up pace from July, he added.

El Nino is associated with the heating of Pacific waters and it sometimes has an impact on the monsoon.

Ramesh said El Nino’s effect is likely to weaken and with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), it is unlikely to have any major impact on the monsoon. A positive IOD is associated with the cooling of the Indian Ocean waters, while a negative IOD is linked to its heating.

Earlier this month, Skymet, a private forecaster, had predicted a ‘below normal’ monsoon.

Last year, the IMD had predicted rainfall of 97 per cent of the LPA, but by the end of the season, India received 91 per cent rainfall.

The IMD will issue the second stage monsoon forecast during the first week of June.