The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) has decided not to release the Consumer Expenditure Survey results of 2017-18 due to data quality issues.

The MOSPI also mentioned that an expert panel has recommended that 2017-18 would not be an appropriate fiscal to be used as a base year for the new GDP series.

On the Consumer Expenditure Survey, the ministry said it is examining the feasibility of conducting the next Consumer Expenditure Survey in 2020-21 and 2021-22 after incorporating all data quality refinements.

The ministry said that its has seen media reports regarding the Consumer Expenditure Survey by the NSO stating that consumer spending is falling and the report has been withheld due to its adverse findings.

“We would like to emphatically state that there is a rigorous procedure for vetting of data and reports which are produced through surveys. All such submissions which come to the ministry are draft in nature and cannot be deemed to be the final report,” it noted.

The National Statistical Office (NSO) of MOSPI carried out an all-India survey on household consumption expenditure in the 75th round from July 2017 to June 2018.

“Further, the results of the survey were examined and it was noted that there was a significant increase in the divergence in not only the levels in the consumption pattern but also the direction of the change when compared to the other administrative data sources like the actual production of goods and services,” the MOSPI said.

“Concerns were also raised about the ability / sensitivity of the survey instrument to capture consumption of social services by households, especially on health and education. The matter was thus referred to a committee of experts, which noted the discrepancies and came out with several recommendations, including a refinement in the survey methodology and improving the data quality aspects on a concurrent basis. The recommendations of the committee are being examined for implementation in future surveys,” it added.

The NSO Consumer Expenditure Survey generates estimates of household Monthly Per Capita Consumer Expenditure (MPCE) and the distribution of households and persons over the MPCE classes.

It is designed to collect information regarding expenditure on consumption of goods and services (food and non-food) consumed by households. The results, after release, are also used for rebasing of the GDP and other macroeconomic indicators.

Experts against using FY18 as base year

The MOSPI also said that an expert panel on national accounts has recommended that 2017-18 would not be an appropriate fiscal to be used as base year for new series for measuring GDP.

The ministry is in the process of finalising the base year for new series of GDP to be unveiled shortly. At present, 2011-12 is the base year for tabulating national accounts.

“The Advisory Committee on National Accounts Statistics has also separately recommended that for rebasing of the GDP series, 2017-18 is not an appropriate year to be used as the new base year,” MOSPI said.

Earlier this month, MOSPI secretary Pravin Srivastava had said that the MOSPI would decide on a new base year for the GDP series.

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