• India has surpassed China to become the world’s most populous nation with 142.86 crore people, shows the UNFPA's State of World Population (SWP) Report 2023.

• The UN projections estimate that the country's population is expected to grow for the next three decades after which it will begin declining.

• China now has a population of 142.57 crore.

• According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) report, about 25 per cent of India’s population is in the age group of 0-14 years, 18 per cent in the 10 to 19 age group, 26 per cent in the age bracket of 10 to 24 years, 68 per cent in 15 to 64 years age group, and 7 per cent above 65 years.

• This is the first time that India has topped the UN list of most populous countries since it started collecting population data in 1950.

• According to the United Nations’ World Population Prospects-2022, India’s population was 86.1 crore while China's population was 114.4 crore in 1950.

• By 2050, India’s population is expected to rise to 166.8 crore while China’s population would dip to 131.7 crore.

• The report also stated that the global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, having fallen under one per cent in 2020.

• According to the UNFPA, the life expectancy at birth for male in India is 71 while for female it is 74 years. The contraceptive prevalence rate of women aged 15-49 by any method as of 2023 is 51 per cent.

• UN projections estimate that India's population is expected to grow for the next three decades after which it will begin declining.

• The latest United Nations projections suggest that the rate of global population growth has fallen, and has been at less than 1 per cent since 2020. This is largely due to declining fertility. Around two thirds of people live in a country or area with a total fertility rate at or below 2.1 children per woman (widely considered the “replacement fertility” rate, also called “zero-growth fertility” rate).  

• Just eight countries will account for half the projected growth in global population by 2050 — the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania. 

A history of ups and downs

Population fluctuations are not new. Archaeological evidence indicates that there have been periods of rapid population growth followed by population declines throughout human history. But, most historical population busts were driven by periods of mass early mortality, induced by events such as war, famines or epidemics. 

Indeed, the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing HIV/AIDS epidemic remind us that disease can continue to impact demographic trends on a large scale. Still, almost all current cases of falling population size are attributable to declining fertility and migration rather than mass mortality events — trends that are a testament to advances in science, technology and peacebuilding. 

Today, most experts agree: population changes are normal, and population sizes are neither good nor bad; what is needed are resilient systems that can respond to the needs of a population, no matter what its size.

United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)

• UNFPA is formally named the United Nations Population Fund. The organisation was created in 1969, the same year the United Nations General Assembly declared “parents have the exclusive right to determine freely and responsibly the number and spacing of their children.”

• Guided by the 1994 Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), UNFPA partners with governments, civil society and other agencies to advance its mission.

• UNFPA works in more than 150 countries and territories.

• It receives overall policy guidance from the UN General Assembly and Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC).

• UNFPA is the United Nations sexual and reproductive health agency. Its mission is to deliver a world where every pregnancy is wanted, every childbirth is safe and every young person’s potential is fulfilled.

• UNFPA calls for the realisation of reproductive rights for all and supports access to a wide range of sexual and reproductive health services – including voluntary family planning, maternal health care and comprehensive sexuality education.

• The State of World Population report is UNFPA’s annual flagship publication. Published yearly since 1978, it shines a light on emerging issues in the field of sexual and reproductive health and rights, bringing them into the mainstream and exploring the challenges and opportunities they present for international development.

What is the purpose of State of World Population report?

• The State of World Population report is produced by a panel of external advisers, researchers and writers, who work alongside UNFPA technical staff and editors, bringing the insights of leading independent experts together on issues related to the UNFPA mandate. 

• This report explores how people — the general public, policymakers, academics and others — understand current population trends, and how those views can impact sexual and reproductive health and rights.

• Population data offer some of the most reliable, forward-looking information on the needs that communities may have 5, 15 and even 50 years into the future. Cohorts of infants will require investments in health care and schooling, for instance. How these cohorts age, how they will likely affect labour markets and pension funds, how needs compare among cohorts within and across communities — all of this information offers policymakers a forecast of the possible future and of future possibilities. 

• These data can enable policymakers to better prepare for impending changes, whether that means investing in systems that support large numbers of students, job seekers or retirees. 

• Population numbers are also critical in steering policies and programmes to achieve the SDGs, including their inherent commitment to leave no one behind.

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