• India and Pakistan have ruled out any bilateral talks between External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and his Pakistan counterpart Ishaq Dar on the sidelines of the SCO heads of government summit.

• It will be for the first time in nearly nine years that India’s foreign minister will travel to Pakistan.

• Pakistan is hosting the SCO Council of Heads of Government meeting on October 15 and 16.

• The last Indian Foreign Minister to visit Pakistan was Sushma Swaraj. She had travelled to Islamabad in December 2015 to attend a conference on Afghanistan.

• The ties between India and Pakistan came under severe strain after India’s warplanes pounded a Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorist training camp in Balakot in Pakistan in February 2019 in response to the Pulwama terror attack.

• The relations further deteriorated after India announced the withdrawal of special powers of Jammu & Kashmir and the bifurcation of the state into two Union Territories on August 5, 2019.

• Pakistan downgraded diplomatic ties with India after New Delhi abrogated Article 370.

India-Pakistan Relations: Initiatives to boost ties

• India and Pakistan have made several positive attempts in the past to improve their relationship and resolve outstanding issues. 

Here are some key initiatives that aimed to foster better relations:

i) Composite Dialogue Framework (2004-2008): Initiated in 2004, the Composite Dialogue Framework was designed to address multiple issues between the two countries, including peace and security, confidence-building measures (CBMs), Kashmir, economic cooperation, and people-to-people contacts.

• Though contentious issues like Kashmir remained unresolved, the dialogue made progress on less controversial matters, such as economic cooperation, visa liberalisation, and cross-border trade.

• The framework helped maintain diplomatic engagement during periods of tension. 

ii) Delhi-Lahore Bus Service (1999): The Delhi-Lahore Bus service was launched in 1999 as part of a peace initiative between Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

• Vajpayee’s historic bus journey to Lahore was symbolic of both countries’ desire to reduce tensions and improve diplomatic relations. This initiative helped de-escalate tensions for a time, especially after the Kargil conflict, and fostered hope for lasting peace. 

iii) Ufa Agreement (2015): The Ufa Agreement was an outcome of a meeting between Indian and Pakistani National Security Advisors in Ufa, Russia. It was intended to restart the dialogue process after a period of heightened tensions.

Important points agreed upon in Ufa included: 

• Early meetings between the Director General of BSF and the Director General of Pakistan Rangers to reduce cross-border tensions. 

• Discussion on expediting the trial of the Mumbai terror attack, including the sharing of additional information for the case. 

• The Ufa meeting was seen as a starting point for a potential new phase of dialogue, although subsequent events prevented sustained progress. 

• Confidence-building measures (CBMs) such as increased cross-border trade, easing visa restrictions, and cultural exchanges were also part of diplomatic efforts to improve ties.

Benefits of strong India-Pakistan ties

i) Economic Opportunities through Trade and Development Projects

• China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): A peaceful resolution of the Kashmir dispute could transform Kashmir into an economic hub, with access to Central Asia through CPEC. This would benefit both India and Pakistan, as well as the local Kashmiri population. 

• TAPI Pipeline: The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline is a major infrastructure project that could meet the growing energy needs of both India and Pakistan. Better relations could ensure the pipeline’s security and success, enhancing energy cooperation. 

• Iran-Pakistan-India Pipeline: The stalled IPI pipeline could be revived if relations improve, providing both nations with a stable energy supply from Iran. 

ii) Peace and Stability in the Region

• Afghanistan’s Stability: Both India and Pakistan have a stake in a stable Afghanistan. Cooperation could help combat terrorism and reduce the influence of extremist groups operating along the porous Afghan-Pakistan border. 

• Counterterrorism Efforts: Both nations suffer from terrorism, and a cooperative security framework could help tackle extremist groups that threaten both countries. 

iii) Boost to Regional Cooperation and SAARC

• A thaw in relations between India and Pakistan could breathe new life into the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), which has been hampered by tensions between the two nations. 

• Improved ties could enable the region to unlock its potential for economic integration, development, and security cooperation. 

iv) Connectivity and Trade

• Improved relations would enable direct road access from India to Afghanistan via Pakistan, eliminating the need to rely on Iran for access to Afghan markets. This would boost regional trade and open up new economic corridors. 

• Cross-border trade could flourish, with both countries benefitting from each other’s markets and resources. 

What makes peace elusive between India-Pakistan?

The elusive peace between India and Pakistan can be attributed to a complex interplay of historical, political, and strategic factors. Here are some of the key reasons:

i) Kashmir Conundrum

The Kashmir issue has been a central and long-standing point of contention between the two nations. It is more than just a territorial dispute; it represents a clash of identities for both countries. The dispute has remained a symbol of the unresolved legacy of partition, making peace between the two countries elusive. 

ii) Fractured Internal Dynamics of Pakistan

Pakistan’s internal political instability, marked by a tug of war between the civilian government and the military establishment, has significantly impacted its foreign policy, particularly towards India. The Pakistan Army has developed a vested interest in maintaining hostility with India, as it justifies its political influence and budgetary dominance in domestic affairs. This dynamic has prevented Pakistan from adopting a long-term, stable policy toward India, while the rise of Islamic extremism has further complicated the situation, creating a breeding ground for militancy and instability. 

iii) Cross-Border Terrorism

Pakistan’s strategic use of terrorism as a tool against India has been a major impediment to peace. Pakistan’s military doctrine of “bleeding India with a thousand cuts” involves supporting and facilitating terrorist groups that operate within India, particularly in Kashmir. This pattern of cross-border terrorism has often led to violent escalations, such as the Uri attack (2016), the Pulwama attack (2019), and India’s subsequent Balakot airstrike. These events disrupt any ongoing or potential diplomatic efforts aimed at peace. 

iv) Boundary Disputes

Beyond Kashmir, India and Pakistan also have unresolved boundary disputes, particularly along the Line of Control (LoC) in northern Kashmir and the Sir Creek dispute in the west. These issues, though secondary to Kashmir, continue to be sources of tension and have hindered efforts to normalize relations.

v) Water Dispute

Water has become another flashpoint in India-Pakistan relations, especially concerning the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). Pakistan’s involvement in cross-border terrorism has led India to question the fairness of continuing water-sharing arrangements under the IWT. Following terrorist attacks, such as the Uri attack, India has threatened to accelerate projects to fully utilise its share of water under the IWT. While India has not abrogated the treaty, tensions over water rights exacerbate the broader hostility between the two countries. 

(The author is a trainer for Civil Services aspirants.)