Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar slammed the practice of showing early trends on counting day by news channels as “nonsense”. Rajiv Kumar also said exit polls create a huge distraction by raising expectations and it was a matter for self-introspection for the media, particularly electronic media.

The CEC said associations such as the News Broadcasting and Digital Standards Authority should do some self-regulation. 

What is exit poll?

• Exit polls are surveys conducted with voters immediately after they leave polling stations during an election. 

Its primary objectives include:

i) Gathering data on how people voted.

ii) Collecting demographic information about voters.

iii) Providing early indications of election outcomes before official results are released.

• The Indian Institute of Public Opinion conducted the first exit poll during the second Lok Sabha elections in 1957, paving the way for their use in subsequent elections.

Judging the Accuracy of Exit Polls

• Sampling Methods: The reliability of exit polls largely depends on the sampling methods employed. A well-designed and representative sample enhances the likelihood of accurate results. 

Key parameters for an accurate opinion poll include:

• Sample Size: A large and diverse sample is crucial. 

• Structured Questionnaire: A clearly constructed questionnaire helps avoid bias. According to the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, “Without a structured questionnaire, the data can neither be collected coherently nor be analysed systematically to arrive at vote share estimates.”

• Demographic Representation: Ensuring the surveyed population reflects the demographic makeup of the overall voting population is essential. 

• An accurate prediction relies more on how well the sample represents the larger population than on sheer size.

Criticisms on Exit Polls

• Bias Concerns: Exit polls can be controversial if the conducting agency is perceived as biased. 

• Influence of Survey Design: The choice, wording, and timing of questions can influence results, as well as the nature of the drawn sample. 

• Sponsorship Issues: Critics argue that many opinions and exit polls are motivated or sponsored by rival factions, potentially distorting voter choices and failing to reflect public sentiment. 

Regulation of Exit Polls in India

• Legal Framework: Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951 prohibits the conduct and dissemination of exit poll results through print or electronic media during specified periods, specifically between the commencement of polling and 30 minutes after the last booth closes.

EC guidelines for the exit poll

• The Election Commission regulates exit polls, allowing them only after polling booths close and for 30 minutes after the last booth has closed.

• Exit polls cannot be conducted during the voting period or on polling day. 

Guidelines for Publication:

• The EC mandates that newspapers and news channels disclose the sample size, polling methodology, margin of error, and the background of the polling agency when publishing exit and opinion poll results. 

• The publication of exit poll results remains banned until the last phase of voting is complete. 

• All media outlets conducting exit polls must register with the Election Commission. 

(The author is a trainer for Civil Services aspirants.)