• The Indian economy grew at 7.8 per cent in the first quarter (April-June) of the current fiscal, much faster than the RBI’s estimate of 6.5 per cent, according to the National Statistics Office (NSO).

• Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran exuded confidence that the Indian economy will grow at 6.3-6.8 per cent in the current fiscal as proposed GST rate cut is expected to aid consumption, even though steep US tariffs pose a downside risk.

• The US has imposed a 50 per cent tariff on Indian goods, which includes a 25 per cent penalty for Russian oil imports, which came into effect from August 27.

• Nageswaran said the impact of penal tariffs on economic activity would be concentrated in the second quarter (July-September).

• Various private sector estimates put the downside risks to GDP growth in the range of 0.2-1 per cent if high tariffs continue.

• The GST Council, comprising Centre and state, will meet on September 3-4 to deliberate on bringing down slabs to two (5 and 18 per cent, and a 40 per cent rate on sin and ultra-luxury goods) from current four (5, 12, 18 and 28 per cent, plus a compensation cess).

Key points of the Quarterly Estimates:

• Real GDP or GDP at Constant Prices in Q1 of FY 2025-26 is estimated at Rs 47.89 lakh crore, against Rs 44.42 lakh crore in Q1 of FY 2024-25, registering a growth rate of 7.8 per cent.

• Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in Q1 of FY 2025-26 is estimated at Rs 86.05 lakh crore, against Rs 79.08 lakh crore in Q1 of FY 2024-25, showing a growth rate of 8.8 per cent.

• Agriculture and allied sector has observed the Real Gross Value Added (GVA) growth rate of 3.7 per cent, as compared to the growth rate of 1.5 per cent registered in Q1 of last financial year.

• Secondary sectors, prominently manufacturing (7.7 per cent) and construction (7.6 per cent)  have registered above 7.5 per cent growth rate at constant prices in this quarter.

• Mining & quarrying (-3.1 per cent) and electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services sector (0.5 per cent) has seen moderated real growth rate during Q1 of FY 2025-26.

• Tertiary sector (9.3 per cent) has recorded a substantial growth rate at constant prices in Q1 of FY 2025-26, over the growth rate of 6.8 per cent in Q1 of FY 2024-25.

• Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) has bounced back, registering 9.7 per cent growth rate in nominal terms during Q1 of FY 2025-26, over the growth rate of 4 per cent in Q1 of FY 2024-25.

• Real Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) has reported 7 per cent growth rate during Q1 of FY 2025-26 as compared to 8.3 per cent growth rate in the corresponding period of previous financial year.

• Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) has recorded 7.8 per cent growth rate at constant prices, over the growth rate of 6.7 per cent in Q1 of FY 2024-25.

(The author is a trainer for Civil Services aspirants.)