The Future of Jobs 2020 report has found that COVID-19 has caused the labour market to change faster than expected. The research released by the World Economic Forum indicates that what used to be considered the “future of work” has already arrived. The report maps the jobs and skills of the future, tracking the pace of change. It aims to shed light on the pandemic-related disruptions in 2020, contextualized within a longer history of economic cycles and the expected outlook for technology adoption, jobs and skills in the next five years.

It provides the timely insights needed to orient labour markets and workers towards opportunity today and in the future of work.

The report shed light on

    • the pandemic-related disruptions thus far in 2020, contextualized within a longer history of economic cycles

    • the expected outlook for technology adoption, jobs and skills in the next five years

Key Findings

    • The pace of technology adoption is expected to remain unabated and may accelerate in some areas. 

    • Automation, in tandem with the COVID-19 recession, is creating a ‘double-disruption’ scenario for workers. 

        ◦ Forty-three percent of businesses surveyed indicate that they are set to reduce their workforce due to technology integration, 41% plan to expand their use of contractors for task-specialized work, and 34% plan to expand their workforce due to technology integration. 

        ◦ By 2025, the time spent on current tasks at work by humans and machines will be equal.

    • Although the number of jobs destroyed will be surpassed by the number of ‘jobs of tomorrow’ created, in contrast to previous years, job creation is slowing while job destruction accelerates.

        ◦ Employers expect that by 2025, increasingly redundant roles will decline from being 15.4% of the workforce to 9% (6.4% decline), and that emerging professions will grow from 7.8% to 13.5% (5.7% growth).

        ◦ It is estimated that by 2025, 85 million jobs may be displaced by a shift in the division of labour between humans and machines, while 97 million new roles may emerge that are more adapted to the new division of labour between humans, machines and algorithms.

    • Skills gaps continue to be high as in demand skills across jobs change in the next five years

        ◦ The top skills and skill groups which employers see as rising in prominence in the lead up to 2025 include groups such as critical thinking and analysis as well as problem-solving, and skills in self-management such as active learning, resilience, stress tolerance and flexibility.

        ◦ 84% of employers are set to rapidly digitalize working processes, including a significant expansion of remote work—with the potential to move 44% of their workforce to operate remotely.

    • The future of work has already arrived for a large majority of the online white-collar workforce.

    • In the absence of proactive efforts, inequality is likely to be exacerbated by the dual impact of technology and the pandemic recession.

        ◦ Jobs held by lower wage workers, women and younger workers were more deeply impacted in the first phase of the economic contraction.

    • Online learning and training is on the rise but looks different for those who are unemployed.

        ◦ There has been a four-fold increase in the numbers of individuals seeking out opportunities for learning online through their own initiative, a five-fold increase in employer provision of online learning opportunities to their workers and a nine-fold enrolment increase for learners accessing online learning through government programmes.

        ◦ Those in employment are placing larger emphasis on personal development courses, which have seen 88% growth among that population. 

        ◦ Those who are unemployed have placed greater emphasis on learning digital skills such as data analysis, computer science and information technology.

    • The window of opportunity to reskill and upskill workers has become shorter in the newly constrained labour market.

    • Despite the current economic downturn, the large majority of employers recognize the value of human capital investment.

        ◦ An average of 66% of employers surveyed expect to get a return on investment in upskilling and reskilling within one year. 

        ◦ However, only 42% of employees taking up employer-supported reskilling and upskilling opportunities.

    • Companies need to invest in better metrics of human and social capital through adoption of environmental, social and governance (ESG) metrics and matched with renewed measures of human capital accounting.

    • The public sector needs to provide stronger support for reskilling and upskilling for at-risk or displaced workers.

(The author is a trainer for Civil Services aspirants. The views expressed here are personal.)