Global life expectancy at birth dips due to COVID-19 pandemic

Global life expectancy at birth reached 72.8 years in 2019, an improvement of almost 9 years since 1990, shows World Population Prospects 2022 released by the United Nations. However, global life expectancy at birth fell to 71 years in 2021, down from 72.8 in 2019, due mostly to the impact of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

Life expectancy at birth is defined as the average number of years that a newborn could expect to live, if he or she were to pass through life exposed to the sex- and age-specific death rates prevailing at the time of his or her birth, for a specific year, in a given country, territory, or geographic area. Life expectancy at birth reflects the overall mortality level of a population. It summarizes the mortality pattern that prevails across all age groups — children and adolescents, adults and the elderly.

According to current projections, further improvements in survival are expected to result in an average length of life globally of around 77.2 years in 2050. 

Because the global population is growing and also ageing rapidly, the number of deaths worldwide is expected to increase over the next decades, from 67 million in 2022 to 92 million in 2050.

Life expectancy reached 72.8 years in 2019

• While considerable progress has been made in closing the difference in life expectancy at birth between countries, the gaps remain wide. In 2021, life expectancy in the least developed countries lagged 7 years behind the global average, due largely to persistently high levels of child and maternal mortality and, in some countries, to violence and conflicts or the continuing impact of the HIV epidemic. 

• Available evidence suggests that in some countries of Europe and Northern America, progress in life expectancy was already slowing or stalling even before the outbreak of the pandemic. 

• In Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States, for example, vital statistics point to levels of life expectancy for recent years that are lower than what was previously projected based on the historical trajectory of improvement in survival in each country. 

• The stalling life expectancy in the United States, for example, was mostly attributable to the stagnating decline in cardiovascular disease mortality.

The gap in life expectancy between certain groups of countries

• In 2021, the disparity between the country with the highest and the country with lowest life expectancy at birth stood at 33.4. 

• Among the countries with a population of at least half million in 2022, life expectancy at birth reached close to 85 years or above years in 2021 in Australia, the Hong Kong and Macao special administrative regions of China, and Japan.

• In contrast, life expectancy at birth is the lowest in Central African Republic, Chad, Lesotho and Nigeria with levels below 54 years in 2021. 

• In the coming decades, further increases in survival are expected to narrow but not to eliminate differences in life expectancy across countries and regions. 

• By 2050, life expectancy at birth is projected to reach 77.2 years worldwide, with a gap of 31.8 years remaining between the countries with the lowest and the highest values. 

• As countries complete the demographic transition and reach historically low levels of mortality, further reductions in death rates become more difficult to achieve and the rise in life expectancy slows down, prompting a trend towards convergence between countries and regions over the long-term.

• In some regions, life expectancy at birth actually declined during the late 1980s and 1990s due primarily to the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa and the health crisis in Eastern Europe following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. These setbacks have long-lasting effects on life expectancy at birth. 

• Countries in sub-Saharan Africa experienced only limited progress in survival during the period 1980-2000. The slow recovery in life expectancy at birth in the countries of the former Soviet Union explains the large and continuing differences across European countries. In 2021, life expectancy at birth ranged from less than 70 years in the Republic of Moldova and the Russian Federation to 84 years in Switzerland.

Higher male mortality rate

• Gender inequalities across the world make women and girls more vulnerable to poor health, often putting them at higher risks of death, including from a maternal cause. 

• At the global level, however, women live on average longer than men. Higher male mortality has been associated with behavioural factors and genetic differences. 

• In 2021, life expectancy at birth for women exceeded that for men by 5.4 years globally, with female and male life expectancies standing at 73.8 and 68.4, respectively. This female survival advantage is observed in virtually all regions and countries of the world.

The population of older persons is increasing 

• Worldwide, persons aged 65 years or over outnumbered children under age five for the first time in 2018.

• The share of the global population aged 65 years or above is projected to rise from 10 per cent in 2022 to 16 per cent in 2050.

• In 2022, there were 771 million people aged 65 years or over globally, 3 times more than the size in 1980 (258 million). The older population is projected to reach 994 million by 2030 and 1.6 billion by 2050. 

• As a result, by 2050 there will be more than twice as many persons aged 65 or older than children under five globally, whereas the number of persons aged 65 years or over globally will be almost the same as the number of children under age 12.

• Population growth at older ages is driven by lower mortality and increased survival, and an upward shift in the population age distribution is caused by a sustained drop in the fertility level.

• Because of the female advantage in life expectancy, women outnumber men at older ages in almost all populations. Globally, women comprised 55.7 per cent of persons aged 65 or older in 2022, and their share is projected to decline slightly to 54.5 per cent by 2050.

• Countries with ageing populations should take steps to adapt public programmes to the growing proportion of older persons, including by improving the sustainability of social security and pension systems and by establishing universal health care and long-term care systems. 

The impact of the COVID-19 on life expectancy 

• Progress in life expectancy at birth has slowed down in 2020 and 2021 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

• It is estimated that life expectancy at birth fell to 71.0 years in 2021 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to a loss of 1.7 years of life expectancy at birth between 2019 and 2021.

• The pandemic’s impact on life expectancy has varied across regions and countries. In Central and Southern Asia and in Latin America and the Caribbean, life expectancy at birth fell by almost three years between 2019 and 2021.

• By contrast, the combined population of Australia and New Zealand gained 1.2 years due to lower mortality risks during the pandemic for some causes of death. 

• In some countries, the pandemic has been responsible for a significant reduction in life expectancy at birth. For Bolivia, Botswana, Lebanon, Mexico, Oman and the Russian Federation, estimates of life expectancy at birth declined by more than 4 years between 2019 and 2021.

• The COVID-19 pandemic severely restricted all forms of human mobility, including international migration.

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