• Syrian rebels' capture of Aleppo from President Bashar al-Assad has brought the Syrian civil war back into focus, jolting frontlines that had been dormant for years with implications for the region and beyond.

• A sharp escalation in fighting in Syria’s Aleppo Governorate has displaced thousands and caused heavy civilian casualties, prompting urgent warnings from senior UN officials about the growing humanitarian crisis and threat to regional stability.

• The alarm comes amid a sharp escalation in fighting in the Aleppo Governorate, spreading to parts of Idlib and Hama governorates and leaving the situation volatile and unpredictable.

• Renewed fighting last week led by the terrorist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other armed factions has engulfed parts of Aleppo, Idlib and Hama, destabilising frontlines that had remained unchanged since 2020.

• It is the first time control of the city has shifted since 2016, when government forces, backed by Russia and Iran, defeated rebels who had controlled Aleppo’s eastern districts.

• Russia, which deployed its air force to Syria in 2015 to help Assad, is conducting airstrikes in support of the army.

• It marks the most serious escalation of the conflict in years.

Situation in Syria

• The crisis in the Syrian Arab Republic is extending into its fourteenth year – with more people than ever sliding into deeper poverty and 16.7 million people in need of humanitarian assistance and protection. 

• After over a decade of conflict, Syria remains the world’s largest refugee crisis. Since 2011, more than 14 million Syrians have been forced to flee their homes in search of safety. More than 7.2 million Syrians remain internally displaced in their own country. 

• Adding to the suffering, Syria is grappling with the aftermath of the catastrophic earthquakes in February 2023, which inflicted severe human and material damage.

• Approximately 5.5 million Syrian refugees live in the five countries neighbouring Syria — Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt. Germany is the largest non-neighbouring host country with more than 850,000 Syrian refugees.

• Over half a million people have fled Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon and crossed into Syria since late September, and there remains a steady flow of movement, with thousands of people driven across the border into Syria every day.

When did the Syrian refugee crisis begin?

The Syrian refugee crisis began in March 2011 as a result of a violent government crackdown on public demonstrations in support of teenagers who were arrested for anti-government graffiti in the southern town of Daraa. The arrests sparked public demonstrations throughout Syria which were violently suppressed by government security forces. The conflict quickly escalated and the country descended into a civil war that forced millions of Syrian families to flee their homes. 

Where do Syrian refugees live?

• Syrian refugees have sought asylum in more than 130 countries, but the vast majority live in neighbouring countries within the region.

• Approximately 92 per cent of refugees who have fled to neighbouring countries live in rural and urban settings, with only roughly five percent living in refugee camps. However, living outside refugee camps does not necessarily mean success or stability. More than 70 per cent of Syrian refugees are living in poverty, with limited access to basic services, education or job opportunities and few prospects of returning home.

• Millions of refugees have lost their livelihoods and are increasingly unable to meet their basic needs — including accessing clean water, electricity, food, medicine and paying rent. 

• The economic downturn has also exposed them to multiple protection risks, such as child labor, gender-based violence, early marriage and other forms of exploitation.

UN’s peace plan 

• The UN Security Council passed a resolution in 2015 aimed at ending the conflict, calling for a new constitution, UN-supervised elections and transparent and accountable governance.

• Implementation has gone nowhere. UN Syria envoy Geir Pedersen said the escalation showed a collective failure to bring about a political process and urged substantive negotiations to find a way out of the conflict.

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