• Breast cancer cases are expected to increase by 38 per cent globally by 2050, with annual deaths from the disease projected to rise by 68 per cent, according to a new report from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), a specialised branch of the World Health Organisation (WHO).

• The findings, published in Nature Medicine, warn that if current trends continue, the world will see 3.2 million new breast cancer cases and 1.1 million related deaths each year by mid-century.

• Every minute, four women are diagnosed with breast cancer worldwide and one woman dies from the disease.

• The burden will be disproportionately felt in low and middle-income countries, where access to early detection, treatment and care remains limited.

What is breast cancer?

• Breast cancer is a disease in which abnormal breast cells grow out of control and form tumours. If left unchecked, the tumours can spread throughout the body and become fatal.

• Breast cancer cells begin inside the milk ducts and/or the milk-producing lobules of the breast. The earliest form is not life-threatening and can be detected in early stages. Cancer cells can spread into nearby breast tissue (invasion). This creates tumours that cause lumps or thickening. 

• Invasive cancers can spread to nearby lymph nodes or other organs (metastasize). Metastasis can be life-threatening and fatal.

• Treatment is based on the person, the type of cancer and its spread. Treatment combines surgery, radiation therapy and medications.

How was the study conducted?

• A new analysis by the IARC and collaborators evaluated the latest and future burden of female breast cancer globally, with a detailed analysis in about 50 countries with high-quality population-level cancer data. 

• These estimates are based on the IARC Global Cancer Observatory, including data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents and the WHO Mortality Database.

Other key points of the study:

• Globally, breast cancer is the most common cancer type among women and the second most common cancer type overall. 

• An estimated 2.3 million new breast cancer cases and 670,000 breast cancer-related deaths occurred worldwide in 2022. 

• However, the burden of breast cancer is not evenly distributed across different world regions.

• For example, breast cancer incidence rates were highest in Australia and New Zealand (100 new breast cancers diagnosed per 100,000 women), followed by Northern America and Northern Europe, and lowest in South-Central Asia (27 new diagnoses per 100,000 women), Middle Africa, and Eastern Africa. 

• This pattern is linked to higher exposure to causes of breast cancer, such as higher alcohol intake or lower levels of physical activity, in countries with high Human Development Index (HDI). 

• In contrast, breast cancer mortality rates were highest in Melanesia (27 deaths per 100,000 women), Polynesia, and Western Africa, and lowest in Eastern Asia (7 deaths per 100,000 women), Central America, and Northern America.

• The report showed that in countries with very high HDI, for every 100 women diagnosed with breast cancer, 17 die from the disease, whereas in countries with low HDI, more than half (56) die from it.

• Based on 2022 rates, globally one in 20 women will be diagnosed with breast cancer in their lifetime, and one in 70 will die from the disease. However, there were large variations across countries and continents.

• Globally, most breast cancer cases and deaths occur in individuals aged 50 years and older, who account for 71 per cent of new cases and 79 per cent of deaths. 

Urgent need for action

• The WHO launched the Global Breast Cancer Initiative in 2021, aiming to reduce breast cancer mortality rates by 2.5 per cent per year, which could prevent 2.5 million deaths by 2040.

• The initiative focuses on early detection, timely diagnosis and access to quality treatment.

• With the projected rise in cases and deaths, the international community faces an urgent challenge, one that requires coordinated action to ensure millions of lives are not lost to a disease that is increasingly preventable and treatable.

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