How investing in planetary health would deliver higher GDP?

• ‘The Global Environment Outlook, Seventh Edition: A Future We Choose’ (GEO-7) was released during the seventh session of the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA) in Nairobi. 

• It is the product of 287 multi-disciplinary scientists from 82 countries.

• The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report has found that investing in a stable climate, healthy nature and land, and a pollution-free planet can deliver trillions in additional global GDP, avoid millions of deaths and lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and hunger.

• Climate change, biodiversity loss, land degradation, desertification, and pollution and waste have taken a heavy toll on the planet, people and economies — already costing trillions of dollars each year.

• However, whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches to transform the systems of economy and finance, materials and waste, energy, food and the environment would deliver global macroeconomic benefits.

A better path

• The transformation pathways predict that the global macroeconomic benefits will start to appear in 2050, grow to $20 trillion per year by 2070 and boom thereafter to $100 trillion per year. 

• The pathways project reduced exposure to climate risks, reduced biodiversity loss by 2030 and an increase in natural lands.

• Nine million premature deaths can be avoided by 2050, through measures such as cutting air pollution. 

• The economic cost of health damages from air pollution alone was about $8.1 trillion in 2019 — or around 6.1 per cent of global GDP.

• By 2050, almost 200 million people could be lifted out of undernourishment and over 100 million people out of extreme poverty.

• To achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and ensure adequate funding for conserving and restoring biodiversity, annual investment of about $8 trillion is needed until 2050. However, the cost of inaction is far higher.

• Land degradation is expected to continue at current rates, with the world losing fertile and productive land the size of Colombia or Ethiopia annually — at a time when climate change could reduce per-person food availability by 3.4 per cent by 2050.

• The 8,000 million tonnes of plastic waste polluting the planet will continue to accumulate — driving up the estimated health-related economic losses of $1.5 trillion attributable annually to exposure to toxic chemicals in plastics.

Sweeping transformations required

Following the transformation pathways would require sweeping changes across five key areas. 

i) Economy and Finance: Move beyond GDP to comprehensive inclusive wealth metrics; price positive and negative externalities to value goods correctly; and phase out and repurpose subsidies, taxes and incentives that result in negative impacts on nature.

ii) Materials and Waste: Implement circular product design, transparency and traceability of products, components and materials; shift investments to circular and regenerative business models; and shift consumption patterns towards circularity through changing mindsets.

iii) Energy: Decarbonise the energy supply; increase energy efficiency; back social and environmental sustainability in critical mineral value chains; and address energy access and energy poverty.

iv) Food Systems: Shift to healthy and sustainable diets; enhance circularity and production efficiency; and reduce food loss and waste.

v) Environment: Accelerate conservation and restoration of biodiversity and ecosystems; back climate adaptation and resilience, leaning on nature-based solutions; and implement climate mitigation strategies.