• India
  • Feb 29
  • T.P. Sreenivasan

Trump visit redefines Indo-US relations

Looking for “key takeaways” from a head of state’s visit is a sign of the times when foreign policy has become transactional around the world. In the old days, such visits - rare by their very nature - were milestones in a long journey and were welcomed as such without considering gains and losses. If a country proposes a bilateral visit, we generally accept it as a goodwill gesture on the basis of reciprocity as a part of diplomatic civility and not for profit.

“Such visits by a head of state, especially of a country with which we have the most wide-ranging relationship, with huge untapped potential for fuelling our growth and modernisation, are most important. These are relationship-building visits that serve as signalling mechanisms too. If the Indo-US relationship is a defining one for this century, Trump’s visit helps in that definition,” wrote Kanwal Sibal, a former foreign secretary.

In the case of Donald Trump, there was the added risk of unpredictability. What if he repeats his complaints about India being “the king of tariffs”? What if he declares a trade war against India? What if he insists on mediating between India and Pakistan? What if he mocks Narendra Modi as he has done before? What if he raises the issue of religious freedom? What if he endorses protests on account of Kashmir and the Citizenship Amendment Act? But mercifully, the US president was very restrained, kept himself within his brief and made no gaffes as he is accustomed to do.

The major achievement of the visit was that the roller coaster of Indo-US relations reached an all-time high when, as the leaders of sovereign and vibrant democracies recognising the importance of freedom, equal treatment of all citizens, human rights and a commitment to the rule of law, Modi and Trump vowed to strengthen the Indo-US Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership, anchored in mutual trust, shared interests, goodwill and robust engagement of their citizens.

They also pledged to deepen defence and security cooperation, especially through greater maritime and space domain awareness and information sharing; joint cooperation; exchange of military liaison personnel; advanced training and expanded exercises between all services and special forces; closer collaboration on co-development and co-production of advanced defence components, equipment and platforms; and partnership between their defence industries. Apart from the order placed for helicopters worth $3 billion, the close defence cooperation was upgraded to the level of interoperability of the armed forces by operationalising the necessary bilateral agreements. Trump also suggested energising the ‘Quad’ consisting of the US, India, Japan and Australia to ensure security in the Indo-Pacific region.

Trade was the most contentious issue. Before the visit, Trump had said that any agreement on a trade deal was unlikely because India was not very helpful in the negotiations. The cancellation of the preparatory visit by the US Trade Representative was a clear signal. But after the Delhi discussions, it was announced that a basic agreement was reached on a preliminary trade deal and that it would be signed soon. Trump noted that there was considerable easing on the trade balance issue. US exports to India have gone up by 60 per cent and if technology exports are taken separately, it has gone up by 500 per cent! With energy imports for which an MoU has been signed, the situation will improve further. In these circumstances, the prospects of a major trade deal has become clearer, he said.

Modi and Trump recognised the increasing importance of the trade and investment dimension of the bilateral relationship, and the need for long-term trade stability that will benefit both the American and Indian economies. They agreed to promptly conclude the ongoing negotiations, which they hope can become phase one of a comprehensive bilateral trade agreement that reflects the true ambition and full potential of the bilateral commercial relations, advancing prosperity, investment and job creation in both countries.

The rumored agreement on setting up six American nuclear reactors in Andhra Pradesh was a non-starter. First of all, the Indian liability law imposing the liability of damage on the supplier is against international and American law. No US company is allowed to sell reactors to any country that puts the liability on the supplier. During his first visit to the US as PM, Modi had announced that this issue would be sorted out by handing the liability to an insurance company. Nothing has been heard about this arrangement since. Moreover, Westinghouse - the company that had got the contract - is in financial straits. No foreign reactor has been set up in India after the Indo-US nuclear deal. The Kudankulam project is continuing only because it predates the new regulations. However, the joint statement “encouraged the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd and Westinghouse Electric Co to finalise the techno-commercial offer for the construction of six nuclear reactors in India at the earliest date”.

On terrorism, India and the US are of one mind and this was reiterated. Trump spoke of “radical Islamic terrorism”, while Modi spoke of cross-border terrorism. Both of them agreed to combat terrorism jointly. However, on Pakistani terrorism, Trump said that he would be in a position to persuade Islamabad to give up terrorism, knowing well that Pakistan would do nothing of the sort. Modi and Trump denounced any use of terrorist proxies and strongly condemned cross-border terrorism in all its forms. They called on Pakistan to ensure that no territory under its control is used to launch terrorist attacks, and to expeditiously bring to justice the perpetrators of such attacks, including 26/11 Mumbai and Pathankot. They called for concerted action against all terrorist groups, including al-Qaeda, ISIS, Jaish-e-Mohammad, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Hizb-ul Mujahideen, the Haqqani Network, TTP, D-Company and their affiliates.

The two leaders committed to working together to strengthen and reform the UN and other international organisations and ensure their integrity. Trump reaffirmed US support for India’s permanent membership on a reformed UN Security Council. He also reaffirmed US support for India’s entry to the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) without any delay. But neither of these is anywhere near to fruition. The NSG entry is possible if China removes its objection on the grounds that India had not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. But there is no formula today on an expansion of the Security Council that can obtain a two-thirds majority of the General Assembly and the support of the five permanent members.

Against the backdrop of the impending agreement between the US and the Taliban, which would lead to the withdrawal of US troops, India and the US expressed interest in a united, sovereign, democratic, inclusive, stable and prosperous Afghanistan. They supported an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace and reconciliation process that results in a sustainable peace; cessation of violence; elimination of terrorist safe havens; and preservation of the gains of the past 18 years. Trump welcomed India’s role in continuing to provide development and security assistance to help stabilise and provide connectivity in Afghanistan.

India and the US committed to an open, reliable and secure Internet that facilitates trade and communication. They noted that India and the US recognised the need for an innovative digital ecosystem that is secure, reliable and facilitates the flow of information and data. The leaders intend to foster cooperation among their industry and academia for open, secure and resilient supply of strategic materials and critical infrastructure, and to independently evaluate the risk associated with the deployment of emerging technologies.

The optics of the unprecedented welcome accorded to the first family of the US and the mutual praise Trump and Modi showered on each other attracted global attention and criticism from the Opposition in India. Every step of the president and the prime minister was scrutinised for any aberration. But no faltering step was detected except that Trump did not mention Gandhiji in his comments in the visitors’ book at Sabarmati Ashram and he mispronounced the names of Swami Vivekananda and Sachin Tendulkar. Finally, there was general agreement that the significant outcomes more than matched the spectacular optics.

The significance of the visit should not be measured only by the takeaways. The new atmosphere generated by the summit will lead to more open discussions and benefit both countries. Moreover, other nations will take note of the Indo-US friendship and feel more confident to invest in and trade with India.

On a lighter side, it was remarkable that the usually unpredictable, impulsive Trump with an America First mentality returned home without treading on anybody’s toes and has not tweeted anything negative. That in itself is a memorable takeaway.

Needless to say, the takeaways will have a great impact on Indo-US relations and on India’s development, security, energy situation and technological development. The summit decisions will act as a catalyst for smaller deals at every level. If re-elected, Trump will follow up on the decisions. Even if he does not, his successor will absorb the Ahmedabad-Agra-Delhi spirit and act accordingly.

(T.P. Sreenivasan is a former Indian diplomat. The views expressed here are personal.)

Notes