• World
  • Jun 18

India to be most populous nation by ’27

India is expected to show the highest population increase between now and 2050 and add nearly 273 million people, overtaking China as the world’s most populous country by around 2027, says a UN report. India, along with eight other countries, will make up over half of the estimated population growth between now and 2050, it said.

The World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights, published by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, said the world’s population is expected to increase by 2 billion people in the next 30 years, from 7.7 billion currently to 9.7 billion in 2050.

The world’s population could reach its peak around the end of the current century, at a level of nearly 11 billion, according to the study, which presents the main results of the 26th round of the UN’s global population estimates, projections and global demographic patterns.

China’s population may decrease

China, with 1.43 billion people in 2019, and India, with 1.37 billion, have long been the two most populous countries of the world, comprising 19 and 18 per cent, respectively, of the global total in 2019. They are followed by the US (329 million), and Indonesia (271 million), the 2019 report said.

“India is expected to add nearly 273 million people between 2019 and 2050, while the population of Nigeria is projected to grow by 200 million. Together, these two countries could account for 23 per cent of the global population increase in 2050,” the report said.

Previous UN projections had estimated that India will surpass China as the world’s most populous country as early as 2022.

The report highlighted that disparate population growth rates among the world’s largest countries will reorder their ranking by size. It said that after this reordering between 2019 and 2050, the ranking of the five largest countries is projected to be preserved through the end of the century, when India could remain the world’s most populous country with nearly 1.5 billion inhabitants, followed by China with just under 1.1 billion, Nigeria with 733 million, the US with 434 million, and Pakistan with 403 million inhabitants.

It also said that more than half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just nine countries, led by India and followed by Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the US.

Meanwhile, a growing number of countries are experiencing a reduction in population size. Since 2010, 27 countries or areas have experienced a reduction of 1 per cent or more in the size of their populations, caused by sustained low levels of fertility.

In China, the population is projected to decrease by 31.4 million, or around 2.2 per cent, between 2019 and 2050.

Improvement in life expectancy

Life expectancy at birth for the world reached 72.6 years in 2019, which increased from 64.2 years in 1990. All regions shared in the rise of life expectancy over this period, but the greatest gains were in sub-Saharan Africa, where improvements in survival have added nearly 12 years to the average length of life since 1990, reaching 61.1 years in 2019.

In Central and Southern Asia, the life expectancy at birth increased by more than 11 years between 1990 and 2019, when it reached 69.9 years. Improvements in survival are expected to continue in all regions such that in 2050 the average length of life is projected to have increased to 77.1 years globally.

The report also confirmed that the world’s population is growing older due to increasing life expectancy and falling fertility levels, and that the number of countries experiencing a reduction in population size is growing.

In 2018, for the first time in history, persons aged 65 years or over worldwide outnumbered children under age five. Projections indicate that by 2050 there will be more than twice as many persons above 65 as children under five. By 2050, the number of persons aged 65 years

or over globally will also surpass the number of adolescents and youth aged 15 to 24 years.

By 2050, one in six people in the world will be over age 65 (16 per cent), up from one in 11 in 2019 (9 per cent). The number of persons aged 80 years or over is projected to triple, from 143 million in 2019 to 426 million in 2050.

UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Liu Zhenmin said the report offers a roadmap indicating where to target action and interventions.

“Many of the fastest growing populations are in the poorest countries, where population growth brings additional challenges in the effort to eradicate poverty, achieve greater equality, combat hunger and malnutrition and strengthen the coverage and quality of health and education systems to ensure that no one is left behind,” Zhenmin said.

The report added that migration has become a major component of population change in some countries. Between 2010 and 2020, 14 countries or areas will see a net inflow of more than 1 million migrants, while 10 countries will see a net outflow of similar magnitude.

Notes