Decades old crisis in the Middle-East suddenly woke up to a path-breaking announcement when Israel & United Arab Emirates has decided to normalize their relationship. Brokered by the Trump Administration, both Israel & UAE reached to a peace agreement on August 13, 2020. If an agreement is signed (expected to be in early Sep 2020), the UAE will be the third Arab country, after Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994, to formally normalize its relationship with Israel, as well as the first Persian Gulf country to do so. 

The Israeli-UAE agreement is based on the understanding that in return for normalization of relations, Israel will forgo its plan of annexing Palestinian territories, although Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the ‘annexation’ of some Palestinian territories in the Judea and Samaria [West Bank] has been put on ‘hold’ but will remain on the table. 

Also officially called as 'The Abraham Accord’ in honor of Abraham, the patriarch of the three major Abrahamic religions of the world — Judaism, Islam and Christianity, the deal has been dubbed as the 'Deal of the Century' that will have a lasting impact on West Asia with many other countries are anticipated to follow suit. 

Background of the Deal

UAE and the United States had a strategic relationship from much earlier augmented by a common agenda in Middle East. Since the 1990 Gulf War, the quality of their engagement increased dramatically, growing to a significant US Air Force presence at Al Dhafra Air Base one of the three military bases that US maintains in UAE. 

Israel in November 2015 announced that it would open a diplomatic office in the UAE. In August 2019, Israel's foreign minister Israel Katz made a public declaration about military cooperation with the UAE amidst rising tensions with Iran. Meanwhile Israel had also been working in secret with the UAE to fight the COVID-19 pandemic.

Moreover, Israeli suspicions that the Iranian nuclear program includes a program to develop atomic bomb capacities, Trump administration's repudiation of the Iran nuclear deal, UAE supporting the Saudi-led and US-sponsored coalition against the Iran-aligned forces in Syria to Yemen, has brought Israel and UAE together on the same side.

Highlights of Arab-Israeli Conflict

    • Jews and Arab Muslims date their claims to the holy land way back to a couple of thousand years. The origin of the present conflict can be traced to as recent as in the beginning of 20th century when European powers muscled among themselves to take control of the Arab territories following the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire. 

    • UK Prime Minister Arthur Balfour sympathizing with the Jews for their support, has called for a “National home for the Jewish people” thus cementing the Balfour Declaration in 1917.

    • Discovery of Oil in 1908 hastened the power struggle among the European powers, and the British Mandate of Palestine approved by League of Nations (precursor to UN) after the WW1 has provided England the much needed initiative to seize control of the region.

    • Persecution of the Jews, socially considered as inferior, a constant subject of racism, and culturally distant from other races, have been other factors that eluded them from a homeland.

    • Theodor Herzl brought forth renewed Zionism and gave a clarion call that Jews deserve their own state in their ancestral homeland, Israel (the Promised Land as mentioned in the Bible), in the same way the French people deserve France or the Chinese people should have China. Thus Jewish immigration to Palestine started from 1880s and increased to 10% of the population by 1914.

    • Holocaust, nevertheless put a brake and somewhere around 6 million Jews were killed in the worst ever genocide. After WW II, the gruesome truth when came forth, the world realized its follies and sympathy started gaining ground for a Jewish homeland.

    • In 1947 UN resolution 181 charted out Israel-Arab state of Palestine with Jerusalem as international city. Jews accepted it wholeheartedly while Arabs rejected it to the core. Immediately after the British withdrawal in 14 May 1948, Israel declared independence and came into existence as a nation. It declared itself as a secular state with all people living within its borders would have the full rights of citizenship. This did not satisfy many Arabs. They did not want to live in Israel. They wanted a state of their own.

    • Such was the collective Arab wrath for the injustice done to the Palestinian people and towards the audacity of Israel, that a day after the Israel declaration of independence, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Transjordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt attacked Israel on May 15th 1948. Arabs lost the war and Israel took control of most parts of Palestine including the western part of Jerusalem. This was the beginning of the armed conflict between them. The 1948 war has uprooted 700,000 Palestinians from their homes, creating a refugee crisis. Today, there are more than 7 million Palestinian refugees, defined as people displaced in 1948 and their descendants asking to permit them back to their homes. But Israel can't accept the right of return, 7 million Arabs to Israel's population would make Jews a minority.

    • 6-day war happened in 1967, when Israel fought a war with Egypt, Syria, and Jordan. Israel fired the first shot, but claims it was preempting an imminent Egyptian attack. In six days, Israel routed the Arab powers, taking the West Bank and East Jerusalem from Jordan. It captured Golan Heights from Syria and Gaza Strip & Sinai area from Egypt. International condemnation followed with UN Resolution 478 saying Israeli annexations are violation of International laws. Ignoring the world, Israel started settlements of Jews in the captured areas in West Bank. 

    • Oslo Peace Accords in 1993 created a Palestinian Authority PLO tasked with limited self-governance of parts of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. PLO recognized the State of Israel and the recognition by Israel of the PLO as the representative of the Palestinian people and as a partner in negotiations.

    • At present peace process is in a stalemate, gap widened and trust is beyond repair. For Palestinians, they don’t want to go for war again. However, they have realized that diplomatic efforts also have got them no closer to any solution. Israelis have come to the conclusion that their perception of achieving peace by giving up land is not going to stop the conflict in Toto.

    • Most of the Arab countries have settled for peace with Israel and so Palestine issue is not a bigger cause as earlier. Syria and Iran are the only Arab countries with which Israel is still at logger heads.

What’s in it for the Stakeholders?

After the Camp David Accord in 1979 leading to a peace deal with Egypt, followed by Jordan in 1994, the Abraham Accord is the third such deal for Israel with a major Arab nation UAE. This not only highlights the increased acceptance of Israel but also a boost to increased security and peace in the region. For Israel, the deal with UAE is a natural progression to the normalization of relations in Middle East. Among the Gulf Cooperation Council [GCC] member countries, Oman and Qatar have also had informal relations with Israel for quite some time. 

As per the agreement, Israel has to suspend (or forego as per UAE version) the settlement in the West Bank which is a major give away and a calculated gamble considering the narrow win for Benjamin Netanyahu in the recent elections. With UAE also in the kitty, Israel can augment its efforts towards containing Iran, emerging as a common nemesis to other Arab nations.

For UAE, the stake is altogether more considering that it has to come to the table with Israel a common enemy of Arab nations in not too distant past with regards to the Palestinian issue. A perception is building up showing that UAE has thrown the Palestinian concerns away in soliciting some temporary rewards. 

However, UAE has categorically stated that the deal has cancelled any further annexation of West Bank Settlements, a herculean achievement considering that Israel has to appease its right-wing constituencies. Iran and Saudi Arabia are engaged in backing different factions in proxy wars from Syria to Yemen, with the UAE supporting the Saudi-led and US-sponsored coalition against the Iran-aligned force and Turkey has been supporting Iran, their combo has become an irritating iterinary in the region. Though Iran may be the nucleus argument to bring Israel and UAE together, there are other factors as well. With a fractured Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Qatar reeling under UAE-Saudi orchestrated blockade and so forging an Iran-Turkey-Qatar trifecta and what better way to control them than to partake with USA and Israel with common interests. Nevertheless, on face value UAE still supports the Two-nation solution and considers the suspension of further settlements as a major victory for Palestinian people.

Donald Trump is basking in the glory and the timing of the agreement can’t be any better to re-invigorate the flagging fortunes of him in the upcoming elections. Trump administration's consistent opposition to Iran, has been a hallmark of its popularity in the region bringing hitherto foes on to the same table. Hence it’s a major foreign policy victory for the incumbent Trump administration however not sure whether it will be good enough for him to last till November.

India has welcomed the full normalization of Israel-UAE ties while endorsing the two-state solution and has asked both of them to work for a comprehensive peace deal amicably. For India, the deal is a boon considering Israel, Saudi, & UAE have become its strategic partners in the region. With Pakistan - Saudi relationship on the brink of collapse over convening a GIC meeting to discuss Kashmir, and UAE also ignoring the Pakistan's request, Pakistan has shifted closer to Iran and Turkey much to the chagrin of Arab nations. With India’s growing ties to the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia and UAE, and ties with Iran and Turkey floundering over the Kashmir issue, the Agreement will buttress Delhi’s ties with the region.

(The author is a trainer for Civil Services aspirants. The views expressed here are personal.)