World is awaiting with bated breath about the outcome of the US Elections 2020 to be held on 4th November and India is also keenly watching the drama getting unfolded.

US being the largest economy in the world and the most powerful country, has a lot at stake in world affairs both economically, morally, politically and a change in the US administration brings a profound proportional change in the world. Hence, US Elections takes the prime time show.

US Presidential Election

The Presidential election in US happens every four years. It’s an indirect election in which the citizens of the United States who are registered to vote in one of the fifty U.S. states or in Washington, D.C., cast ballots not directly for those offices, but instead for members of the Electoral College. These electors then cast direct votes, known as electoral votes, for president, and for vice president. The candidate who receives an absolute majority of electoral votes (at least 270 out of 538) is then elected to that office. If no candidate receives an absolute majority of the votes for president, the House of Representatives chooses the most qualifying candidate for the presidency; if no one receives an absolute majority of the votes for vice president, then the Senate elects the vice president.

Once chosen, electors generally cast their electoral votes for the candidate who won the plurality in their state. Most of the time, the winner of a US presidential election also wins the national popular vote, however there were few exceptions such as in 2016 when Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but could not clinch the elector votes to reach the magic number of 270.

Presidential system has its own merits and demerits and the most important factor is that the Head of the Government is directly accountable to the citizens and not to the legislature. Many Indian advocates such as Shashi Tharoor have been vouching for the same to be introduced in India as well.

Why US election matters?

US has a pivotal role to play in world affairs owing to the following reasons:

    • Third largest country areawise

    • Third most populous country (328 million) accounting 5% of the global population

    • Largest economy ($20 Trillion GDP) generating 20% of the world income

    • Second largest democracy showcasing its stand on liberal values and thoughts

    • Most powerful military and the only superpower now

The role that it plays is much more significant such as

    • Showing way to international peace as a Global leader

    • Promotion and protection of the liberal international order, freedom, democracy, and human rights

    • Prevention of the emergence of regional bullies

Some observers feel that the Trump Administration has substantially changed the US role in the world by taking a backseat in global leadership and a gratuitous discarding of long-held U.S. values, that the United States had worked to build and maintain for 70 years. US foreign policy had changed to the extent that it has taken a voluntary retreat from global leadership, relying mostly on unilateralism, without any cooperation or willingness to work through international or multilateral institutions. US has started viewing allies skeptically and with a less-critical view of certain authoritarian or illiberal governments much to the chagrin of democratic nations.

One can see the pattern in the US withdrawal from Trans-Pacific Partnership, Paris Climate Agreement, Iran Nuclear Agreement etc. Allies like NATO, South Korea are seen through a transactional and monetary-focused approach whereas its apparent reluctance to criticize Russia, North Korea, Syria, China (in Hong Kong prodemocracy protests). 

Nevertheless, smaller nations, international organisations, liberal society are all looking forward to the US election with a hope that the present pattern may discontinue and US will be back to where it belongs in championing the cause of a peaceful international order.

Howdy Modi with Namaste Trump

President Trump and Prime Minister Modi has adopted a personal approach towards dealing with each other resulting in a strong bond. However, the relations were never on the dotted line what with Trump criticising India at the smallest provocation and at times such humiliations were sidetracked by Indian government to keep Trump in good humour. Modi went to the extent to endorse Trump in his re-election bid but Trump had a transactional approach towards India. While negotiating the trade deal, Trump described India as "Tariff King", talked of retaliation when India signed a $4.5 billion deal with Russia for the S-400 missile defence system, threatened to lift the ban on hydroxychloroquine exports etc. which suggests his bargaining nature which is not premised on values or traditions.

Nevertheless, Trump administration’s overall approach and Indian engagement with Washington helped to ensure that on matters of trade, immigration, investment, technology, & China, both the countries either witnessed intensified cooperation or that damage was mitigated. Trump's relative apathy to China has driven the US policy towards a Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy benefitting India in bilateral defence cooperation and higher degrees of strategic coordination. Bilateral trade in FY2019-20 between the US and India stood at an astounding $88.75 billion, positioning the US as India’s top trading partner and the trade deficit in India’s favour narrowed. For the transfer of sensitive technologies, Trump administration has lowered the barriers and when it imposed tariffs on imports worth $370 bn on China, India and its products become much more competitive. India also got a pat on its back when it held China on the border turmoil and also when Article 370 was scrapped, US didnt raise a voice which was very unlikely in the past. Hence if Trump wins, India can work with US in next four years without any political contingencies.

Democratic Government - Most likely

With two more weeks to go, Democratic nominee Joe Biden is having a two digit lead over Trump and hovered around 50% of national votes. However, the caveat is that in 2016, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost - that's because the US uses an electoral college system, so winning the most votes doesn't always win you the election. 

It is expected that Biden will provide greater clarity and bring stability to US policy, a return to more traditional approaches overall and to certain issues with respect to India as well. From India's point of view, US policy on China will be by far the most consequential. Joe Biden has expressed a soft stance on trade with China. In an interview, he hinted at ending the tariffs that Trump had imposed on Chinese imports. So, if Biden is elected, some of the economic gains that the Indian markets are expecting, might not be there. However, he will be under heavy pressure domestically to not to support manufacturing in China. With the bold stand that India has taken against China, QUAD re-emergence, Indo-Pacific, all will have Biden to go with the status quo considering that it will have to take on the mantle of Global Leader once again. Iran oil sanctions has put India in a wobbly situation when India was dependent on oil from Iran and its delicate relationship with Iran on jeopardy. Perhaps with the lifting of the ban and US-Iran nuclear agreement on the anvil again, India can pick up its dealings with Iran once again without much hindrance. Pakistan, India's internal affairs such as Kashmir, etc are also expected to figure in the Biden-Harris administration with a variant stance than the Trump administration. More favourably, on immigration, Visa, & climate India expects US to come out of the narrow outlook as posed by Trump.

India to gain

Whether its Trump or Biden, Indian government will have both opportunities and difficulties. Opportunities will be a continuation of the present engagements and difficulties might not be to the extent that it cannot be discussed and mitigated. Hence India stands to gain and will be eagerly looking forward to a positive, progressive relations with US beyond 2020.

(The author is a trainer for Civil Services aspirants. The views expressed here are personal.)