• Climate change is perceptible through a rise in all India mean temperature and increased frequency of extreme rainfall events in the last three decades. This causes fluctuation in production of major crops in different years.

    • Impact of climate change on Indian agriculture was studied under National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA).

    • Rainfed rice yields in India are projected to reduce marginally (<2.5%) in 2050 and 2080 and irrigated rice yields by 7% in 2050 and 10% in 2080 scenarios.

    • Further, wheat yield projected to reduce by 6-25% in 2100 and maize yields by 18-23%.

    • Future climates are likely to benefit chickpea with increase in productivity (23-54%).

    • Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) has initiated a network project NICRA during 2011 to address the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture.

    • NICRA project is being reviewed by a High Level Monitoring Committee (HLMC) under the Chairmanship of Secretary, DARE & DG, ICAR with invited members representing different Ministries, Government of India.

    • This committee recommends measures to be taken through NICRA for making Indian agriculture more resilient to changing climate.

    • Besides an expert committee periodically review the project and advise on various aspects.

    • Vulnerability assessment of Indian Agriculture to climate change was for 573 rural districts of India (excluding the Union Territories of Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep).

    • Based on the vulnerability analysis, 109 districts out of 573 rural districts (19% of total districts) are ‘very high-risk’ districts, while 201 districts are risk districts.

    • Integrated simulation modelling studies indicated that under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, maximum temperature is expected to increase by 1 to 1.3oC in 256 districts, by 1.3 to 1.6 oC in 157 districts (2020-2049). 

    • The increase ranged from <1.3 oC in 199 districts to >1.6 oC in 89 districts.

    • Cultivation of wheat in these districts is likely to be affected by heat stress.

    • Under NICRA project, wheat germplasm comprising of advanced breeding lines and land races have been screened for heat/drought tolerance. 

    • ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) has released the high yielding varieties such as HD 2967 and HD 3086 which are being grown in large areas of North-west and North India.

    • Zero till planting of wheat has advanced the wheat sowing in Punjab and Haryana.

Background

    • Altogether, the impact of climate change is very comprehensive but its far reaching effects are now clearly visible on agricultural sector, on which relies the food production and economy of the world.

    • It is also worth noting that world population is expected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050 which would magnify the pressure on agricultural lands to meet the growing food demands already affected by the impact of climate change.

    • World Food Programme (WFP) report of 2018 revealed that increase in crop yield per hectare is significantly slower as compared to rates of rising population. 

    • As per Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) data published in 2016, if the current situation of GHG emissions and climate change continue then by the year 2100 there will be decline in the production of major cereal crops (20–45% in maize yields, 5–50% in wheat and 20–30% in rice).

    • The increasing demand of food due to ever growing population have resulted in intensive agricultural practices including unprecedented use of agro-chemicals, livestock generation (for meat and other source of income), exploitation of water resources etc.

    • FAO reports that rise in world hunger level is constantly increasing since 2014 and an increment in number of undernourished people have been observed from 804 million in 2016 to 824 million in 2017. 

    • These reports established the fact that achieving the target of sustainable development goals (SDG) by 2030, to eradicate hunger is still difficult to achieve.

    • Therefore, implementing and adapting to actions/policies to mitigate the effects caused by climate variability are urgently required such as:

    1. Developing resilient varieties of crops which can withstand abrupt stresses of temperature and precipitation, implementing biotic and sustainable agricultural methods.

    2. Use of biofertilizers and biopesticides will result in decreased reliance on chemical fertilizers and pesticides. This will result in reduced emission of GHG and decrease in levels of soil, water and air pollution.

    3. Change in crop cultivars, sowing time and cultivation techniques (such as mixed cropping systems) to provide greater durability to crops in extreme events should be taken into account.

    4. Reclamation of marginal and degraded lands using resilient crops, by afforestation or by the use of beneficial soil microbes will not only result in increased agriculture productivity but also help in combating climate change. 

    5. As per United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) “restoring the soils of degraded ecosystems has the potential to store up to 3 billion tonnes of carbon annually”. Phyto or rhizoremediation of such soils increase the organic matter which results in enhanced CO2 fixation in the soil.

    6. Extensive data collection and field trials to assess the impact of prevailing climatic conditions in different agro-ecological zones can help in designing future strategies through computational simulation.

    7. Remote sensing and satellite imaging can also help in future predictions for the vulnerable agro-ecosystems and suggesting for the corrective measures by involving multi-disciplinary approach.

    8. Connecting and sensitizing farmers to sustainable technologies and activities is of utmost importance as they are the ones who can play a major role in implementation of the ecological goals. 

    9. Climate smart agriculture is also an important requirement for enhancing the yields and quality of production. 

(The author is a trainer for Civil Services aspirants. The views expressed here are personal.)