Global temperatures set to stay near record levels, says WMO report

• Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, with Arctic temperature anomalies expected to continue to be higher than the global mean, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), produced by the UK’s Met Office. 

• The report, titled Global Annual-to-Decadal Update, takes a look at the observed climate over the past five years and gives regional predictions for temperatures and precipitation over the next five years.  

Key points of the report:

• Annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026-2030 are predicted to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average. It is likely (86 per cent chance) that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record, according to .

• It is very likely (91 per cent chance) that the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030. This level was also temporarily exceeded in 2024, when the global average surface temperature was about 1.55°C above the pre-industrial baseline.

• It is likely (75 per cent chance) that the 2026-2030 five-year mean will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average. It is considered exceptionally unlikely (less than 1 per cent) that any single year will exceed 2°C above the 1850-1900 average in the next five years.

• The 1.5°C mark is a key benchmark under the Paris Agreement on climate change, with scientists warning that exceeding it for prolonged periods would sharply increase the risks of extreme weather, ecosystem collapse, food insecurity and displacement.

• Arctic temperatures over the next five extended northern hemisphere winters (November-March) are predicted to be 2.8°C above average temperatures for 1991-2020, an anomaly more than three and half times that of global mean temperature anomaly over the same period, it says.

• Scientists also predicted continued declines in Arctic sea ice, particularly in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk. Sea ice loss matters because it accelerates warming by reducing the Arctic’s ability to reflect sunlight, while also disrupting ecosystems, weather patterns and livelihoods in polar regions.

• Higher-than-average rainfall is expected in parts of the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia between 2026 and 2030, while drier conditions are forecast for the Amazon region and parts of the subtropics.

• Wetter conditions are also likely at higher northern latitudes during upcoming winter seasons.