• Asia’s sprawling megacities – which are driving economic growth – face an uncertain future as rising temperatures, ageing populations and unplanned urban development test their resilience.

• Seven of the ten most populous cities in the world are in Asia, with Tokyo, Delhi, Shanghai and Dhaka topping the list. 

• These urban giants, long seen as symbols of opportunity and progress, are now in danger of dragging economies backwards.

• In a new report, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) warns that without urgent and inclusive action, these stresses could widen inequality, overstretch public services, and deepen social and environmental tensions.

Engines of opportunity, centres of vulnerability

• Asia-Pacific cities are facing profound demographic changes. The region is home to over 2.2  billion city dwellers and many of the planet’s megacities (over half of the 30 largest urban areas in the world are in Asia and the Pacific). 

• By 2050, the region’s urban population is expected to grow by 50 per cent, adding 1.2 billion people.

• While cities have long been drivers of economic growth, the region’s rapid urbanisation is intensifying social and environmental pressures. One in three urban residents still lack access to basic services. Climate change is raising temperatures, while rising sea levels and extreme floods threaten coastal megacities. A significant share of the urban population remains locked in poverty, with many living in slums or informal settlements.

• The mega cities are engines of opportunity but also centres of vulnerability.

Shrinking cities

• Traditionally, young people have moved from rural areas to cities in search of economic opportunities. As the number of young people declines, so will the number of rural-to-urban migrants. 

• The number of older persons, however, is expected to double, from 72.2 crore in 2024 to 1.3 billion in 2050.

• Increasing numbers of older persons will remain in cities, often living alone owing to smaller family sizes, stimulating a growing need for age friendly housing, transport and other infrastructure. 

• By 2050, the number of older persons in Asia and the Pacific is projected to reach 1.3 billion – nearly double the figure in 2024.

• Since there is also a higher risk of disability among older persons, age and disability-friendly housing will be needed. 

• Older persons also have additional medical needs, including to address more acute heat-related risks as temperatures rise, which may lead to increased demand for healthcare facilities. 

• In this context of ageing populations, low birth rates and slowing rates of urbanisation, a relatively new phenomenon has emerged in the region —  ‘shrinking cities’. 

• China, Japan and South Korea are at the forefront of this trend.

• Research from Japan indicates that even capital-intensive investments in transport infrastructure, like high-speed rail, have not yet been sufficient to reverse the shrinkage.

Expanding informal settlements

• Informality is prevalent in urban areas where infrastructure and services are inadequate. 

• Asia and the Pacific has the largest number of people living in informal settlements and more than 65 per cent of its total urban population is also engaged in the informal economy. 

• The percentage of informal employment as a share of total employment varies across the region, standing at 87 per cent in South Asia, 70 per cent in South-East Asia and 47 per cent in East Asia. 

• With housing prices soaring and wages stagnating, millions are being pushed into slums and unregulated neighbourhoods. 

• These areas are often the first to face climate shocks – and the last to receive services like sanitation or emergency relief.

Skyrocketing temperatures

• Climate change adaptation and mitigation is a paramount challenge for Asia and the Pacific, which must grapple with vulnerabilities like extreme

temperatures, water scarcity, food insecurity and natural disasters.

• Cities are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat because of the ‘urban heat island effect’. 

• ‘Heat islands’ are urbanised areas that experience higher temperatures than outlying areas. Structures such as buildings, roads, and other infrastructure absorb and re-emit the Sun’s heat more than natural landscapes such as forests and water bodies. Urban areas, where these structures are highly concentrated and greenery is limited, become “islands” of higher temperatures relative to outlying areas.

• In 2024, record temperatures swept through South and Southeast Asia – from Dhaka and Delhi to Phnom Penh and Manila – straining infrastructure and healthcare systems.

• Between 2000 and 2019, nearly half of all global heat-related deaths occurred in Asia and the Pacific. With rising temperatures and shrinking green spaces, risks are growing.

• The urban population growth in Asia and the Pacific has led to increased demand for water and groundwater exploitation, thereby straining the region’s water resources. At the same time, wasteful consumption

and inadequate water management infrastructure have inhibited the ability of the region to do more with less. 

• Extensive groundwater extraction and the loss of natural buffers have increased the risk of land subsidence. While the threat is most visible in megacities such as Bangkok, Dhaka, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta, Karachi, Manila, Mumbai, Shanghai and Tianjin, similar conditions are affecting secondary and other cities such as Chittagong in Bangladesh and Semarang in Indonesia.

• Social issues like migration, housing accessibility and wealth inequality challenge the social cohesion of cities in Asia and the Pacific. 

Five policy recommendations:

1) Governments should enhance regional cooperation to effectively and jointly respond to environmental and socioeconomic vulnerabilities by developing collaborative urban networks that facilitate the sharing of knowledge and best practices among cities, thus enabling them to act as catalysts for regional leadership for the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the objectives of the Paris Agreement.

2) Governments should adopt national urban policies as a tool to enhance multilevel governance, ensuring that urban development aligns with national economic, social and environmental goals.

3) Governments should prioritise the development of sub-national and local capacities to collect, interpret and utilise disaggregated data with a view to effectively localizing the Sustainable Development Goals.  

4) Governments should bolster their planning capabilities to address demographic changes, including population ageing, youth outmigration and international migration, in urban areas. Parallel growth in intermediary cities and large metropolitan areas is crucial to making progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and enhancing urban resilience.

5) Governments should pursue diversified and innovative approaches to urban financing to address the financing gap in sustainable urban development across the region. While inter-governmental transfers, including revenue-sharing tax assignments between local and national governments, remain a cornerstone of municipal funding, they must be made more predictable, timely and adaptable to local priorities.

Manorama Yearbook app is now available on Google Play Store and iOS App Store